The Future of the Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament Regime by 
Unraveling the Gray Area Problem: The United States and the INF Treaty by 
SIPRI Yearbook 2023 : Armaments, Disarmament and International Security by 
Armament, Arms Control and Artificial Intelligence by
Looking at a variety of armament sectors, the book examines how Artificial Intelligence (AI) impacts the fields of armament and arms control, how existing arms control measures will be affected by AI, and what new approaches based on AI have been or are currently developed. The significant increase in computing power, the increasing reliance on software, and the advent of (narrow) AI and deep-learning algorithms all have the potential to lead to disruptive changes for military operations and warfare, rendering many classical arms control instruments less effective, or even useless. On the other hand, AI might lead to completely new arms control approaches, raising the effectiveness and reliability of new verification measures. To provide a common understanding, the book starts by presenting a general introduction to the state of the art in artificial intelligence and arms control, and how the two topics are interrelated. The second part of the book looks at examples from various fields of weapon technology, including weapons of mass destruction (WMD), conventional armament, and emerging technologies. The final section offers a cross-cutting perspective based on the examples presented in the second part. This volume will appeal to students and scholars of international relations, as well as policy-makers and practitioners interested in a better understanding of peace and security studies in general, and armament and arms control in particular with a strong focus on AI.
Ukraine's Nuclear History by
This book presents a comprehensive overview of Ukraine's nuclear history, beginning from its experiences within the Russian Empire in the early 20th century, through the Soviet period, to the emergence of Ukraine as an independent state that inherited the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal. The book discusses the development of the nuclear infrastructure on Ukrainian soil and offers a rich and nuanced background of how Ukraine became an important and integrated part of the Soviet nuclear infrastructure. It further analyzes Ukraine's nuclear disarmament based on extensive primary source material and places the Ukrainian nuclear reversal process in a larger international political context where Russia´s, the United States, and other players´ actions are interpreted in the light of the impact on the current nuclear non-proliferation regime. Finally, the book presents the nuclear-related development after the nuclear disarmament. It describes the integration of Ukraine into the international community and the role of nuclear power in the energy mix of the nation today. Concluding, Ukraine´s adaptation to the new security situation after the Russian annexation of Crimea is described and discussed. This volume is a must-read for scholars, researchers, students, and policy-makers interested in a better understanding of Ukraine's nuclear history, the political background of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, as well as of security studies and international relations in general. The work on this book has been supported by the Swedish Radiation Authority (SSM) in the Nuclear History of Ukraine Project (2015-2019).
Signing Away the Bomb by
For more than fifty years, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the wider nuclear nonproliferation regime have worked to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Analysts and pundits have often viewed the regime with skepticism, repeatedly warning that it is on the brink of collapse, and the NPT lacks many of the characteristics usually seen in effective international institutions. Nevertheless, the treaty continues to enjoy near-universal membership and high levels of compliance. This is the first book to explain why the nonproliferation regime has been so successful, bringing to bear declassified documents, new data on regime membership and weapons pursuit, and a variety of analytic approaches. It offers important new insights for scholars of nuclear proliferation and international security institutions, and for policymakers seeking to strengthen the nonproliferation regime and tighten international constraints on the spread of nuclear weapons.
Arms Control and Europe : New Challenges and Prospects for Strategic Stability by
The introduction is focused on the analysis of the global tendencies, peculiar to the collapse of the international security architecture. The general overview of the book parts, authors, and their chapters is shortly presented.
Russian-American Nuclear Nonproliferation Dialogue by
This book explores the history of the nuclear nonproliferation dialogue between Russia (USSR) and the United States. By looking into the particulars of bilateral cooperation on NPT, Cooperative Threat Reduction program, arms control, and other issues, the authors offer lessons to be learned in preventing nuclear confrontations in the future. The book has been prepared in coordination between Russian and American scholars and experts and is a result of a series of Track 2.5 events devoted to restoring the nonproliferation cooperation between Russia and the United States. Covering all the aspects of the bilateral partnership since 1960 until today, this book will interest scholars of great power conflicts and nonproliferation. The workshop and the consequent work on the monograph became possible thanks to generous organizational & financial support from Centre russe d`etudes politiques (Geneva) and the Center for Policy Studies in Russia (Monterey, USA).
Inheriting the Bomb by
The collapse of the Soviet Union unleashed the specter of the largest wave of nuclear proliferation in history. Why did Ukraine ultimately choose the path of nuclear disarmament? The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left its nearly 30,000 nuclear weapons spread over the territories of four newly sovereign states: Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. This collapse cast a shadow of profound ambiguity over the fate of the world's largest arsenal of the deadliest weapons ever created. In Inheriting the Bomb, Mariana Budjeryn reexamines the history of nuclear predicament caused by the Soviet collapse and the subsequent nuclear disarmament of the non-Russian Soviet successor states. Although Belarus and Kazakhstan renounced their claim to Soviet nuclear weapons, Ukraine proved to be a difficult case: with its demand for recognition as a lawful successor state of the USSR, a nuclear superpower, the country became a major proliferation concern. And yet by 1994, Ukraine had acceded to the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state and proceeded to transfer its nuclear warheads to Russia, which emerged as the sole nuclear successor of the USSR. How was this international proliferation crisis averted? Drawing on extensive archival research in the former Soviet Union and the United States, Budjeryn uncovers a fuller and more nuanced narrative of post-Soviet denuclearization. She reconstructs Ukraine's path to nuclear disarmament to understand how its leaders made sense of the nuclear armaments their country inherited. Among the various factors that contributed to Ukraine's nuclear renunciation, including diplomatic pressure from the United States and Russia and domestic economic woes, the NPT stands out as a salient force that provided an international framework for managing the Soviet nuclear collapse.
Seeking the Bomb : Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation by
Much of the work on nuclear proliferation has focused on why states pursue nuclear weapons. The question of how states pursue nuclear weapons has received little attention. This is the first book to analyze this topic by examining which strategies of nuclear proliferation are available to aspirants, why aspirants select one strategy over another, and how this matters to international politics. Looking at a wide range of nations, from India and Japan to the Soviet Union and North Korea to Iraq and Iran, the author develops an original typology of proliferation strategies - hedging, sprinting, sheltered pursuit, and hiding. Each strategy of proliferation provides different opportunities for the development of nuclear weapons, while at the same time presenting distinct vulnerabilities that can be exploited to prevent states from doing so. The author delves into the crucial implications these strategies have for nuclear proliferation and international security. Hiders, for example, are especially disruptive since either they successfully attain nuclear weapons, irrevocably altering the global power structure, or they are discovered, potentially triggering serious crises or war, as external powers try to halt or reverse a previously clandestine nuclear weapons program. As the international community confronts the next generation of potential nuclear proliferators, this book explores how global conflict and stability are shaped by the ruthlessly pragmatic ways states choose strategies of proliferation.
The Treaty Prohibiting Nuclear Weapons : How It Was Achieved and Why It Matters by
This book chronicles the genesis of the negotiations that led to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which challenged the established nuclear order. The work provides readers with an authoritative account of the complex evolution of the 'Humanitarian Initiative' (HI) and the negotiation history of the TPNW. It includes a close analysis of internal strategy documents and communications in the author's possession which trace the tactical and political decisions of a small group of state actors. By demonstrating the unacceptable humanitarian consequences and uncontrollable risks that these weapons pose to everyone's security, the HI convinced many states to ban nuclear weapons and reject the policy of nuclear deterrence as unsustainable and illegitimate. As such, this book is a case-study of multilateral diplomacy and cooperation between state and civil society actors. It also contains a full discussion of both sides of the nuclear argument and assesses the extent to which the HI and the TPNW have moved the dial and present opportunities for transformational change.
Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace : The Rise, Demise, and Revival of Arms Control by
The greatest unacknowledged diplomatic achievement of the Cold War was the absence of mushroom clouds. Deterrence alone was too dangerous to succeed; it needed arms control to prevent nuclear warfare. So, U.S. and Soviet leaders ventured into the unknown to devise guardrails for nuclear arms control and to treat the Bomb differently than other weapons. Against the odds, they succeeded. Nuclear weapons have not been used in warfare for three quarters of a century. This book is the first in-depth history of how the nuclear peace was won by complementing deterrence with reassurance, and then jeopardized by discarding arms control after the Cold War ended.
Building a Road to Nuclear Disarmament : Bridging the Gap Between Competing Approaches by
This book focuses on comprehending the contemporary global security environment, creating a new roadmap for nuclear disarmament by creating a balance between deterrence supporters and disarmament advocators. The author identifies the divide between competing approaches such as traditional security-centric aspects and humanity-centered disarmament perspectives, tackling the complex question of how to balance some states' requirements for effective nuclear deterrence with other states' long-term desire for a nuclear-free world. The book explores how new technologies such as cyber and AI advances are available to more countries than nuclear technology, and could level the playing field for weaker nuclear weapons states. It also looks into the issues which continue to be obstacles in the way of convincing the nuclear weapon states (NWS) on nuclear disarmament. The author argues that the gap between deterrence supporters and disarmament advocators can be filled by creating a new environment for renewed consensus on achieving a world free of nuclear weapons. This book provides a deeper understanding and critical analysis of how global evolving parallel traditional security and normative trends relating to nuclear weapons can be bridged in order to make the disarmament debate practically achievable.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Verification : Innovative Systems Concepts by
This book strives to take stock of current achievements and existing challenges in nuclear verification, identify the available information and gaps that can act as drivers for exploring new approaches to verification strategies and technologies. With the practical application of the systems concept to nuclear disarmament scenarios and other, non-nuclear verification fields, it investigates, where greater transparency and confidence could be achieved in pursuit of new national or international nonproliferation and arms reduction efforts. A final discussion looks at how, in the absence of formal government-to-government negotiations, experts can take practical steps to advance the technical development of these concepts.
Banning the Bomb : The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons by
Frustrated by the abrogation of promises by nuclear weapons states to disarm, countries that have foregone nuclear weapons joined forces with key members of civil society in efforts that culminated in the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). How did this initiative succeed - in defiance of the major powers - in changing the discourse around nuclear weapons ? What roles did the various actors play, and how did the language of the treaty evolve ? Answering these questions, the authors provide a deeply researched account of the TPNW campaign, the negotiations, and the ongoing challenges of ratification and implementation.
State Responses to Nuclear Proliferation : The Differential Effects of Threat Perception by
Contemporary fears of rogue state nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism pose unique challenges for the global community. This book offers a unique approach by examining why states that have the military capability to severely damage a proliferating state's nuclear program instead choose to pursue coercive diplomacy. The author argues cognitive psychological influences, including the trauma derived from national tragedies like the September 11th attacks and the Holocaust, and a history of armed conflict increase the threat perceptions of foreign policy decision-makers when confronting a state perceived to be challenging the existing power structure by pursuing a nuclear weapon. The powerful state's degree of perceived threat, combined with its national security policies, military power projection capabilities, and public support then influence whether it will take no action, use coercive diplomacy/sanctions, or employ military force to address the weaker state's nuclear ambitions.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Verification : Innovative Systems Concepts by
This book strives to take stock of current achievements and existing challenges in nuclear verification, identify the available information and gaps that can act as drivers for exploring new approaches to verification strategies and technologies. With the practical application of the systems concept to nuclear disarmament scenarios and other, non-nuclear verification fields, it investigates, where greater transparency and confidence could be achieved in pursuit of new national or international nonproliferation and arms reduction efforts. A final discussion looks at how, in the absence of formal government-to-government negotiations, experts can take practical steps to advance the technical development of these concepts.
Les armes de destruction massive et leur interdiction : menaces nucleaires, radiologiques, biologiques, chimiques, explosives de masse by
Depuis de nombreuses annees, au moins depuis la Premiere Guerre mondiale, il est fait reference aux 'armes de destruction massive', nucleaires, radiologiques, biologiques, chimiques et explosives (NRBCE). Elles alimentent une phobie deja particulierement pregnante parmi le public souvent mal informe. Cet ouvrage aborde certains tabous dans les domaines aussi varies que la geopolitique et la geostrategie, les technologies, les recherches duales (afin de creer de nouvelles armes et faire des recherches prophylactiques, en matiere biologique et chimique notamment). Ces armes exacerbent des dangers multiples, avec des menaces polymorphes auxquelles le monde est deja confronte. Croire que ces armes ne seront jamais utilisees reste une utopie : elles font desormais partie d'un spectre de destruction dont les moyens se diversifient de plus en plus, et cela sans differencier les combattants des civils qui en seront les premieres victimes, malgre l'existence de textes prohibitifs qui ne cessent d'etre violes par les acteurs, souvent Etats ou puissances militaires. Malgre tout, le droit prevoit de punir les auteurs d'actes NRCBE, mais imparfaitement dans les relations internationales, en raison du jeu des alliances douteuses entre puissances jugees intouchables parce qu'elles sont dotees d'un arsenal nucleaire leur conferant une invulnerabilite incontestable (ADAN).
A Middle East Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction : A New Approach to Nonproliferation by
The establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons, a concept more recently broadened to cover all weapons of mass destruction (WMD), has been before the international community for decades. In this book, two experts from the region explore why the matter remains unresolved, and outline a comprehensive yet achievable roadmap to a Middle East free of WMD. Weapons of mass destruction pose an existential threat to global peace and security. But nowhere is it more urgent to stem their spread than in the Middle East, a region fraught with mistrust and instability. Accounting for these geopolitical realities, including the ongoing talks to curb Iran's nuclear program, the authors present a practical and innovative roadmap to a Middle East free of weapons of mass destructions (WMD). They outline a phased approach toward disarmament in the region, prescribing confidence-building measures and verification tools to create trust among the region's governments. Their vision also sees the realization of a WMD-free zone within a broader regional agenda for security and cooperation to advance socioeconomic and political progress.
A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe : Addressing the Security Challenges of the 21st century
Rand Corporation (US)
Over 30 years after the end of the Cold War, military tensions have returned to Europe. Both the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia are boosting their deployments in close proximity to one another and in multiple domains. At the same time, a host of new or dramatically improved conventional capabilities have been fielded, introducing a significant level of uncertainty into the security environment. Meanwhile, political and military-to-military relations are at a post-Cold War low, with communication as the exception, not the norm, and the structure of interaction created by arms control and confidence and security-building measures almost entirely collapsed. Through a combination of interviews, workshops, and structured analysis on the causes of potential conflict, the authors of this report outline new conventional arms control (CAC) measures to lower the risk of conflict in Europe. Although it once served as a cornerstone of European security, the current regional CAC regime is outdated and largely irrelevant to today's challenges. Rather than starting with the existing agreements, the authors begin with an investigation of the catalysts of possible conflict and build arms control policy options on that basis. How might specific changes in behavior, posture, presence, technology, or capabilities-and varying perceptions thereof-drive conflict? What capabilities or combination of capabilities are destabilizing, and why? And what CAC measures could be used to address these risks? The authors use the answers to these questions to suggest a menu of options for a new CAC regime that could address the regional security challenges of the 21st century.
Nuclear Deviance : Stigma Politics and the Rules of the Nonproliferation Game by
This book examines the linkage between deviance and norm change in international politics. It draws on an original theoretical perspective grounded in the sociology of deviance to study the violations of norms and rules in the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. As such, this project provides a unique conceptual framework and applies it to highly salient issues in the contemporary international security environment. The theoretical/conceptual chapters are accompanied by three extensive case studies : Iran, North Korea, and India.
The United States, Russia and Nuclear Peace by
This book analyzes the United States and Russia's nuclear arms control and deterrence relationships and how these countries must lead current and prospective efforts to support future nuclear arms control and nonproliferation. The second nuclear age, following the end of the Cold War and the demise of the Soviet Union, poses new challenges with respect to nuclear-strategic stability, deterrence and nonproliferation. The spread of nuclear weapons in Asia, and the potential for new nuclear weapons states in the Middle East, create new possible axes of conflict potentially stressful to the existing world order. Other uncertainties include the interest of major powers in developing a wider spectrum of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, possibly for use in limited nuclear wars, and the competitive technologies for antimissile defenses being developed and deployed by the United States and Russia. Other technology challenges, including the implications of cyberwar for nuclear deterrence and crisis management, are also considered. Political changes also matter. The early post-Cold War hopes for the emergence of a global pacific security community, excluding the possibility of major war, have been dashed by political conflict between Russia and NATO, by the roiled nature of American domestic politics with respect to international security, and by a more assertive and militarily competent China. Additionally, the study includes suggestions for both analysis and policy in order to prevent the renewed U.S.-Russian nuclear arms race and competition in new technologies.
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons : A Commentary by
This book offers detailed background and analysis of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which was adopted at the UN Headquarters in New York in July 2017. The Treaty comprehensively prohibits the use, development, export, and possession of nuclear weapons. The author works through article by article, describing how each provision was negotiated and what it implies for states that join the Treaty. As the Treaty provisions cut across various branches of international law, the book goes beyond a discussion of disarmament to consider the law of armed conflict, human rights, and the law on inter-state use of force. The book examines the relationship with other treaties addressing nuclear weapons, in particular the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Background on the development and possession of nuclear weapons and theories of nuclear deterrence is provided. Particular attention is paid to controversial issues such as assistance for prohibited activities, the meaning of 'threaten to use', and the definition of nuclear explosive devices. The author also considers whether a member of NATO or other nuclear alliance can lawfully become a state party to the Treaty.
Non-Nuclear Peace : Beyond the Nuclear Ban Treaty by
This book examines the possibility of a world without nuclear weapons. It starts from the observation that, although nuclear deterrence has long been dominant in debates about war and peace, recent events show that ridicule and stigmatization of nuclear weapons and their possessors is on the rise. The idea of non-nuclear peace has been around since the beginning of the nuclear revolution, but it may be staging a return. The first part reconstructs the criticism of nuclear peace, both past and present, with a particular emphasis on technology. The second part focuses on the most revolutionary change since the beginning of the nuclear revolution, namely the Humanitarian Initiative and the resulting Nuclear Ban Treaty (2017, which allows imagining non-nuclear peace anew. The third and last part explores the practical and institutional prospects of a peace order without nuclear weapons. If non-nuclear peace advocates want to convince skeptics, they have to come up with practical solutions in the realm of global governance or world government.
Bargaining over the Bomb : The Successes and Failures of Nuclear Negotiations by
Can nuclear agreements like the Iran deal work ? This book develops formal bargaining models to show that they can over time, despite apparent incentives to cheat. Existing theories of nuclear proliferation fail to account for the impact of bargaining on the process. The author explores how credible agreements exist in which rival states make concessions to convince rising states not to proliferate and argues in support of nuclear negotiations as effective counter-proliferation tools. This book proves not only the existence of settlements but also the robustness of the inefficiency puzzle. In addition to examining existing agreements, the model used by the author serves as a baseline for modeling other concerns about nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Disarmament : A Critical Assessment by
This volume of essays provides a comprehensive overview of nuclear disarmament and a critical assessment of the way forward. Comprising essays by leading scholars on nuclear disarmament, the book highlights arguments in favour and against a world without nuclear weapons (Global Zero). In doing so, it proposes a new baseline from which an ever-changing nuclear arms control and disarmament agenda can be assessed. Numerous paths to nuclear disarmament have been proposed and scrutinized, and with an increasing number of countries signing off on the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, it is vital to ask which path is most the most likely and realistic to succeed. The essays here also address the rapid pace of technological, political and climatic developments, in relation to nuclear disarmament, and how they add to the complexity of the issue. Taking care to unite the different tribes in the debate, this book provides a community of dissent at a time when academic tribalism all too often prevent genuine debates from taking place.
Verifying Nuclear Disarmament by
Fifty years into the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) regime, the risks of nuclear war, terrorism, and the threat of further proliferation remain. A lack of significant progress towards disarmament will cast doubt upon the viability of the NPT. By recognizing that certain fissile materials are essential to every nuclear weapon and that controlling their usage provides the foundation for international efforts to limit their spread, this book presents a comprehensive framework for nuclear disarmament. Based upon phased reductions, the author provides a mechanism for the disposal of weapon-origin fissile material and controls on peaceful nuclear activities and non-explosive military uses. He explores the technological means of monitoring and verification, the legal arrangements required to provide an enduring foundation, and a financial structure which will enable progress.
Once and Future Partners : The United States, Russia and Nuclear Non-Proliferation by
Relations between the United States and Russia today are beset by rivalry in almost every sphere, and mutual suspicion reigns. Both parties have shunned arms-reduction talks and are pursuing nuclear modernization programmes; a new nuclear arms race looms. Yet the two leading nuclear powers have shared interests in checking the proliferation of nuclear weapons and related technologies, as did the US and Soviet Union during the Cold War. This book reaches back to episodes of US-Soviet cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation to identify factors that permitted successful joint action, even in circumstances of profound geopolitical rivalry. It includes essays on the collaboration that prevented South Africa from conducting a nuclear-weapon tests in 1977; Cold War-era discussions on peaceful nuclear explosions and the developments that led from the Limited Test-Ban Treaty to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT); negotiating and sustaining the NPT; the establishment of the London Club and nuclear-export controls; bolstering IAEA safeguards; and negotiating the draft Radiological Weapons Convention. From these case studies, the editors identify seven lessons for contemporary policymakers and three immediate challenges that can only be overcome through bilateral cooperation.
Getting Nuclear Weapons Right : Managing Danger and Avoiding Disaster by
Can we avoid nuclear war ? Why are we more at risk today than at the end of the Cold War ? Can the world powers work together to ensure international stability ? The author provides a comprehensive assessment of these complex issues, ranging from the prospects for nuclear abolition, to the management of nuclear crises, to the imperative need for nuclear arms control worldwide.
The Challenges of NATO Nuclear Policy : Alliance Management under the Trump Administration by
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FI)
In no aspect of NATO’s deterrence and defense posture is the challenge of Alliance management more demanding than in its nuclear dimension. This is especially the case at a time when Russia’s aggressive actions and threatening behavior have fundamentally changed the security environment in Europe, and President Donald Trump’s approach to NATO has presented challenges of its own. In this context, it is crucial that Allies understand the positions that they have agreed on in terms of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation (ADN), as well as nuclear weapons policy, doctrine and posture. Considering the security benefits they receive in return for the United States’ extension of its nuclear deterrent to its NATO Allies, these states must also distinguish between the nuclear-related roles and responsibilities they are expected to take on and those with regard to which they have the option to ‘opt out’. For its part, the Trump Administration must appreciate that if all Allies are expected to close ranks behind the enhancements to NATO’s nuclear posture that are needed in order to respond to Russia’s threatening behavior, many will require an equally robust arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation posture as a quid pro quo.
Tailored Assurance : Balancing Deterrence and Disarmament in Responding to NATO-Russia Tensions by 
Security, Economics and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Morality : Keeping or Surrendering the Bomb by
This book seeks to elucidate the decisions of states that have chosen to acquire nuclear arms or inherited nuclear arsenals, and have either disarmed or elected to retain their warheads. It examines nuclear arms policy via an interconnected framework involving the eclectic use of national security based realism, economic interdependence liberalism, and nuclear weapons norms or morality based constructivism. Through the various chapters examining the nuclear munitions decisions of South Africa, Ukraine and North Korea, a case is built that a state's leadership decides whether to keep or give up 'the Bomb' based on interlinked security, economic and norms governed motivations. Thereafter, frameworks evaluating the likelihood of nuclear proliferation and accessing the feasibility of disarmament are then applied to North Korea and used to examine recent Iranian nuclear negotiability.
Regional Pathways to Nuclear Nonproliferation by
Beset by challenges new and old, the global nuclear nonproliferation regime stands at an impasse. The author makes the case for a reorientation of the regime, posing an alternative conceptualization of nuclear order centered on the regional level. Drawing on an array of theoretical tools from the literatures on regionalism, security governance, and international institutions, the author develops a framework to analyze the conditions that would allow for more robust regional nuclear cooperation. He then deploys his theoretical approach to several case studies, including Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, focusing on two interrelated questions. First, what is the viability of a stronger nuclear order within the region ? Second, what form would such an order most likely take ? In the process, he identifies the magnitude and character of the proliferation challenge specific to each region, while considering the existing character of nuclear cooperation in the region, including in interrelated areas of safety and security.
War Games : US-Russian Relations and Nuclear Arms Control by
Does it make sense for the United States to cooperate with Russia to resolve international security issues ? Is it possible for the two countries to work together to reduce the dangers associated with nuclear weapons ? Where does Vladimir Putin fit into the calculus ? Engaging the debate on these contentious issues, the author provides context for and policy-relevant analysis of current US-Russian nuclear relations.
Negotiating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty : Origins of the Nuclear Order by
This volume offers a critical historical assessment of the negotiation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and of the origins of the nonproliferation regime. The NPT has been signed by 190 states and was indefinitely extended in 1995, rendering it the most successful arms control treaty in history. Nevertheless, little is known about the motivations and strategic calculi of the various middle and small powers in regard to their ultimate decision to join the treaty despite its discriminatory nature. While the NPT continues to be central to current nonproliferation efforts, its underlying mechanisms remain under-researched. Based on newly declassified archival sources and using previously inaccessible evidence, the contributions in this volume examine the underlying rationales of the specific positions taken by various states during the NPT negotiations. Starting from a critical appraisal of our current knowledge of the genesis of the nonproliferation regime, contributors from diverse national and disciplinary backgrounds focus on both European and non-European states in order to enrich our understanding of how the global nuclear order came into being.
Nuclear Politics : The Strategic Causes of Proliferation by
When do states acquire nuclear weapons ? Overturning a decade of scholarship focusing on other factors, the authors show here that proliferation is driven by security concerns. Proliferation occurs only when a state has both the willingness and opportunity to build the bomb. A state has the willingness to nuclearize when it faces a serious security threat without the support of a reliable ally. It has the opportunity when its conventional forces or allied protection are sufficient to deter preventive attacks. This explains why so few countries have developed nuclear weapons. Unthreatened or protected states do not want them; weak and unprotected ones cannot get them.
Disarmament under International Law by
Russia's annexation of Crimea and involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine has in many respects set back post-Cold War improved relations between Russia, the United States, and Europe. The continued war in Syria threatens the security and stability of many countries in the Middle East, and attacks by ISIS and other terrorist organizations are increasing fear and instability in Iraq and in neighbouring countries. In many areas negotiations on disarmament and arms control are at a standstill. The author examines and discusses here how disarmament, arms control, and non-proliferation of both conventional weapons and weapons of mass-destruction are regulated in existing treaties and conventions. From his perspective as a former disarmament negotiator, he explains the United Nations' disarmament machinery and procedures, and describes the UN's essential role in promoting disarmament. Underlining the continued and serious threat posed by nuclear weapons, the author appeals for greater, more effective international efforts to reduce their number and ultimately eliminate them.
Stable Nuclear Zero : The Vision and Its Implications for Disarmament Policy by
This volume examines the conditions necessary for a stable nuclear-weapons-free world and the implications for nuclear disarmament policy. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is a road map to nuclear zero, but it is a rudimentary one and it says nothing about the kind of zero to aim for. Preferably, this would be a world where the inhibitions against reversal are strong enough to make it stably non-nuclear. What then are the requirements of stable zero ? The literature on nuclear disarmament has paid little attention to this question. By and large, the focus has been on the next steps, and discussions tend to stop where the NPT stops : with the elimination of the weapons. This book seeks to fill lacunae by examining the requirements of stable zero and their implications for the road map to that goal, starting from the vision to the present day. The volume highlights that a clear conception of the goal not only is important in itself, but can shed light on what kind of disarmament process to promote.
Nonproliferation Policy and Nuclear Posture : Causes and Consequences for the Spread of Nuclear Weapons by
This volume examines the causes and consequences of nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies. The real-world importance of nuclear weapons has led to the production of a voluminous scholarly literature on the causes and consequences of nuclear weapons proliferation. Missing from this literature, however, is a more nuanced analysis that moves beyond a binary treatment of nuclear weapons possession, to an exploration of how different nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies may influence the proliferation of nuclear weapons and subsequent security outcomes. This volume addresses this deficit by focussing on the causes and consequences of nuclear postures and nonproliferation policies. It is the aim of this book to advance the development of a new empirical research agenda that brings systematic research methods to bear on new dimensions of the nuclear weapons phenomenon. Prior to the contributions in this volume, there has been little evidence to suggest that nuclear postures and policies have a meaningful impact on the spread of nuclear weapons or security outcomes. This book brings together a new generation of scholars, advancing innovative theoretical positions, and performing quantitative tests using original data on nuclear postures, nonproliferation policies, and WMD proliferation. Together, the chapters in this volume make novel theoretical, empirical, and methodological contributions to the field of nuclear weapons proliferation.
Routledge Handbook of Nuclear Proliferation and Policy by
This handbook is a comprehensive examination of the rich and complex issues of nuclear proliferation in the early 21st century. The future of the decades-long effort to prevent the further spread of weapons of mass destruction is at a crossroads today. If international nonproliferation efforts are to be successful, an integrated, multi-tiered response will almost certainly be necessary. But a serious, thorough, and clear-eyed examination of the range of threats, challenges, and opportunities facing the international community is a necessary first step. This handbook, which presents the most up-to-date analysis and policy recommendations on these critical issues by recognized, leading scholars in the field, intends to provide this examination. The volume is divided into three major parts : - Part I presents detailed threat assessments of proliferation risks across the globe, including specific regions and countries. - Part II explains the various tools developed by the international community to address these proliferation threats. - Part III addresses the proliferation risks and political challenges arising from nuclear energy production, including potential proliferation by aspiring states and nonstate groups.
The EU and the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons : Strategies, Policies, Actions by
The vast majority of the existing literature on the emerging role of the EU as a non-proliferation actor exhibits only the most tertiary engagement with theory. This collection intends to redress this imbalance by placing the role of the EU in the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons within an analytical framework inspired by the emerging body of literature on the performance of international organisations (IOs). The volume provides an in-depth exploration of the EU's performance in key fields of non-proliferation : the multilateral strand of the NPT and the technology control regimes, bilateral relations - with a focus on the transatlantic partnership - and EU internal governance.
Arms Control in Space : Exploring Conditions for Preventive Arms Control by
The idea of space control and the militarization or weaponization of space has become increasingly prominent in contemporary society. This book puts the widely held view that 'arms control in space is not feasible' to the test and aims to explore how, and under what conditions, arms control in space is feasible and could become a reality. Developing a hypothesis on the general conditions for preventive arms control, the author uses three major theoretical approaches to international relations, neoliberal institutionalism, neorealism, and constructivism, and examines the unsuccessful case of arms control regarding space weapons and the successful case of arms control in the field of Anti-Ballistic Missiles (ABMs).
Cooperative Arms Control and Non-Proliferation by
Arms control and non-proliferation efforts are two of the tools that have occasionally been used to implement U.S. national security strategy. Although some believe these tools do little to restrain the behaviour of U.S. adversaries, while doing too much to restrain U.S. military forces and operations, many other analysts see them as an effective means to promote transparency, case military planning, limit forces, and protect against uncertainty and surprise. Arms control and non-proliferation efforts have produced formal treaties and agreements, informal arrangements, and co-operative threat reduction and monitoring mechanisms. The pace of implementation for many of these agreements slowed during the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration usually preferred unilateral or ad-hoc measures to formal treaties and agreements to address U.S. security concerns. But the Obama Administration resumed bilateral negotiations with Russia and pledged its support for a number of multilateral arms control and non-proliferation efforts. This book provides an overview of the treaties, agreements and control regimes currently in place and relating to co-operative arms control and non-proliferation.
Global and Regional Approaches to Arms Control in the Middle East : A Critical Assessment from the Arab World by
Since the end of the Cold War, the Middle East has been the focus of various projects for the establishment of arms control (including CBMs) regimes. Whereas some of these projects were initiated at the global level, others were discussed and debated at the regional level. This book analyses the global and regional dynamics of arms control in the Middle East in the post-Cold War era. It examines American and European arms control projects, the contexts in which they were presented, the reactions of major regional actors, and their impacts on arms control efforts in the region. It assesses Arab perceptions of the motivations for and constraints on establishing arms control regimes. It also explores the prospects of regional arms control in the context of the ongoing Arab Spring with its ramifications for Arab regional politics, and provides a new perspective on arms control in the Middle East. This volume enriches the ongoing discourse, which to date has been dominated by mainly Western perspectives.
Less Is Better : Nuclear Restraint at Low Numbers by
Despite the rise of 'new' security threats like terrorism, cyber-war and piracy, the terrible destructive power of nuclear weapons still hangs over the world. Discussion on further strategic nuclear arms reduction has tended to be dominated by the analysis of possible trade-offs between the US and Russia. But as the prospect of further cuts below 'New START' levels is contemplated, increasing attention needs to be paid to the possible shape of a new, multipower approach to nuclear restraint. While restraint at low numbers goes with the grain of thinking in most nuclear states, correct sequencing will be vital. Using the New START framework, attention could initially be focused on incremental decreases in US and Russian stocks of the most dangerous weapons. Thereafter, the other nuclear powers would need to take steps to limit the size and capabilities of their own arsenals in a process of mutual reductions. If successful, the benefits would be wide ranging : successful restraint amongst existing nuclear-armed states could engender trust, as well as provide mechanisms for reducing the risks of rapid escalation in the event of limited conflict. This book considers the various challenges and opportunities for ensuring restraint at low numbers in today's complicated web of bilateral nuclear relationships and in the context of the debate on 'Global Zero'.
Nuclear Politics and the Non-Aligned Movement by
The Non-Aligned Movement is the largest grouping of states engaged on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation issues, comprising more than two-thirds of the membership of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Yet, the movement is often misunderstood by Western scholars and policymakers, who typically fail to appreciate the diversity of views among its 120 members and 17 observer states. This paper explores the structures and politics within NAM, and stresses the potential for greater engagement between NAM members and the West in mitigating many of the most pressing nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation and terrorism challenges. Its thorough examination of how NAM business is conducted, along with an analysis of how prominent members or groups of members have sought to dominate it for their own purposes, offers invaluable insight ahead of the 2015 NPT Review Conference and as NAM approaches a possible watershed moment in the movement's history : the assumption by Iran of the chairmanship in mid-2012.
Arms Control and Missile Proliferation in the Middle East by
This edited volume provides a systematic analysis of the missile threat and proliferation issue in the Middle East region. The question of how to increase the level of security in the Middle East is not a new one, given the conflict-ridden nature of the region. The solution attempted for this predicament has typically revolved around intense arms build-ups, a strategy which can prove self-defeating due to the subsequent countermeasures employed by neighbouring states. The book focuses on the strategic proliferation of arms, with a specific emphasis on missiles. This unique emphasis enables to contributors to provide a dynamic new perspective on conceptual and political disarmament efforts, thereby distinguishing this volume from many other related works on the region, which deal mainly with weapons of mass destruction. The book also explores the possibility of a reduction in weapon arsenals, examining a more promising cooperative security concept which includes confidence- and security-building measures.
Desarmement classique et securite en Europe : les fortunes du traite sur les Forces armees conventionnelles en Europe by
Signe au cours de la guerre froide, le traite sur les Forces armees conventionnelles en Europe (FCE) annoncait une transformation substantielle de la strategie des deux alliances militaires de l'Est et de l'Ouest en les assujetisssant a reduire leurs equipements militaires classiques, de maniere a retablir l'equilibre entre leurs forces. Bien qu'il ait finalement ete mis en oeuvre dans un environnement geopolitique totalement different, son succes est incontestable. Grace aux limites numeriques qu'il a imposees entre l'Est et l'Ouest, il a instaure un climat de confiance suffisamment mur pour que son objectif - l'elimination de la capacite de lancer une attaque par surprise et de declencher une offensive de grande envergure - soit atteint. Neanmoins, cette dynamique est aujourd'hui menacee, puisque non seulement le 'nouveau' traite FCE adapte, signe en 1999, n'a jamais ete mis en oeuvre, mais la Russie a annonce, en 2007, un moratoire sur son application meme. L'auteur plonge au coeur des differentes phases du processus de desarmement classique en Europe, veritable 'barometre' des relations Est/Ouest. Alliant les angles historique et politique, son livre se revele d'une rigoureuse profondeur.
Eliminating Nuclear Weapons : The Role of Missile Defense by
The goal of a planet free from nuclear weapons is at last being taken seriously by the foreign policy establishments of the leading powers. For the Obama administration, followed by the British government, leading the world to accept the elimination of nuclear weapons as a realistic political objective is a priority. In a world with new nuclear weapon states like India, Pakistan, North Korea, and in the foreseeable future Iran and others, it is only a matter of time before atomic weapons will be used again, whether in an authorised, unauthorized or accidental way. The ultimate fear - unfortunately a realistic one - is nuclear terrorism, that bleakly forbidding combination of ideology and technology. At the same time, missile defense seems to have finally made the move from the drawing table to the concrete silo. Even the Democratic administration of President Obama continues to spend nearly $10 billion per annum on missile defense, including land- and sea-based systems to be deployed in and around Europe. At a certain point in the not too distant future, nuclear elimination and missile defense will either reinforce or weaken each other. Is missile defense a mandatory precondition for arriving at a nuclear weapons-free world, as some claim ? Or will missile defense make it more difficult, if not impossible, to reach 'global zero' ? This book is the first to systematically compare and analyze both options.
Getting to Zero : The Path to Nuclear Disarmament by
This book takes on the much-debated goal of nuclear zero - exploring the serious policy questions raised by nuclear disarmament and suggesting practical steps for the nuclear weapon states to take to achieve it. It documents the successes and failures of six decades of attempts to control nuclear weapons proliferation and, within this context, asks the urgent questions that world leaders, politicians, NGOs, and scholars must address in the years ahead.
Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation : Towards a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World ? by
This book examines the current debate on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, notably the international non-proliferation regime and how to implement its disarmament provisions. Discussing the requirements of a new international consensus on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, this book builds on the three pillars of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) : non-proliferation, disarmament and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. It reviews the impact of Cold War and post-Cold War policies on current disarmament initiatives and analyses contemporary proliferation problems : how to deal with the states that never joined the NPT (India, Pakistan and Israel); how states that have been moving towards nuclear weapons have been brought back to non-nuclear-weapon status; and, in particular, how to deal with Iran and North Korea. The analysis centres on the relationship between disarmament and non-proliferation in an increasingly multi-centric world involving China and India as well as the US, the European powers and Russia. It concludes with a description and discussion of three different worlds without nuclear weapons and their implications for nuclear-disarmament policies.
Nuclear Proliferation and International Order : Challenges to the Non-Proliferation Treaty by
This book examines the state of the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the issues it faces in the early 21st century. Despite the fact that most countries in the world have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) there is growing concern that the NPT is in serious trouble and may not be able to stop the further spread of nuclear weapons. If so, international stability will be undermined, with potentially disastrous consequences, and the vision of a nuclear weapon-free world will become utterly unrealistic. More specifically, the NPT is exposed to four main challenges, explored in this book : challenges from outside, as three countries that have not signed the Treaty - Israel, India, and Pakistan - are known to possess nuclear weapons; challenges from within, as some countries that have signed on to the Treaty as non-nuclear weapons states have nevertheless developed or are suspected to be trying to develop nuclear weapons (North Korea and Iran being cases in point); challenges from below in the shape of terrorists and other non-state actors who may want to acquire radioactive materials or even nuclear weapons; and, finally, challenges from above due to the perceived failure of the five legal nuclear weapons states to keep their part of the 'double bargain' made by the parties of the NPT and take serious steps towards nuclear disarmament.
A Skeptic's Case for Nuclear Disarmament by
The author clearly presents the dangers of nuclear weapons and the advantages of disarmament as a goal. But even once an accord is in place, he notes, temporary suspension of restrictions may be necessary in response to urgent threats such as nuclear 'cheating' or discovery of an advanced biological weapons program. To take all nuclear options off the table forever strengthens the hand of those that either do not make that pledge or do not honor it. For the near term, traditional approaches to arms control, including dismantling existing bomb inventories, can pave the way to make a true nonproliferation regime possible in the decades ahead.
Towards Nuclear Zero by
International Institute for Strategic Studies (GB)
Rarely in the atomic age have hopes for genuine progress towards disarmament been raised as high as they are now. Governments, prompted by the renewed momentum of non-proliferation and disarmament initiatives, have put nuclear policy at the top of the international agenda. But how can countries move from warm words to meaningful action ? By what means could the world be weaned from its addiction to nuclear weapons and who should undertake the task of supervising this process ? This paper examines practical steps for achieving progress toward disarmament, assessing the challenges and opportunities associated with achieving a world without nuclear weapons. It places the current debate over abolition in the context of urgent non-proliferation priorities, such as the need to prevent terrorists. It distils lessons from states that have already given up nuclear programmes and from the end of the Cold War to suggest ways of countering the efforts of Iran and North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons. For the longer term, it offers policy recommendations for moving towards a reduced global reliance on nuclear weapons.
Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XXXII, SALT I, 1969–1972 by 
Abolishing Nuclear Weapons by
Nuclear disarmament is firmly back on the international agenda. But almost all current thinking on the subject is focused on the process of reducing the number of weapons from thousands to hundreds. This rigorous analysis examines the challenges that exist to abolishing nuclear weapons completely, and suggests what can be done now to start overcoming them. The paper argues that the difficulties of 'getting to zero' must not preclude many steps being taken in that direction. It thus begins by examining steps that nuclear-armed states could take in cooperation with others to move towards a world in which the task of prohibiting nuclear weapons could be realistically envisaged. The remainder of the paper focuses on the more distant prospect of prohibiting nuclear weapons, beginning with the challenge of verifying the transition from low numbers to zero. It moves on to examine how the civilian nuclear industry could be managed in a nuclear-weapons-free world so as to prevent rearmament. The paper then considers what political-security conditions would be required to make a nuclear-weapons ban enforceable and explores how enforcement might work in practice. Finally, it addresses the latent capability to produce nuclear weapons that would inevitably exist after abolition, and asks whether this is a barrier to disarmament, or whether it can be managed to meet the security needs of a world newly free of the bomb.
Designing Denuclearization : An Interpretive Encyclopedia by
This work canvasses nuclear weapon abolition, proposals placed on the table since 9145 and the obstacles and issues which a realistic program for abolition confronts today.
